by Firdaus *)
The prospect of impeaching Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka has once again stirred political debate in Jakarta, this time over a Constitutional Court (MK) case challenging the validity of his diploma when he registered as a candidate in the 2024 presidential election.
The case, registered as Case No. 01/PHPU.PRES-XXIV/2026, was filed by 12 petitioners. The petition questions the validity of Gibran’s educational credentials, while lawyers representing the General Elections Commission (KPU) have argued that the substance of the petition has begun to touch on the constitutional process of impeachment.
Until the Constitutional Court delivers its ruling, Gibran remains the legally recognized vice president of the Republic of Indonesia. Yet amid an evolving political landscape, it is worth examining what could happen if the most serious scenario were to materialize.
The Constitution provides a mechanism for filling a vacant vice presidential position. If the office becomes vacant, the president is required to submit two candidates for vice president to the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR). The MPR must then convene a plenary session within a maximum of 60 days to elect one of the two nominees.
On paper, therefore, the constitutional succession mechanism appears relatively straightforward.
Political reality, however, can be considerably more complicated.
Removing a vice president from office before the end of a term would require navigating a demanding political and constitutional process. The governing coalition currently commands a substantial majority in the legislature, making political support a crucial factor in any impeachment process.
If, against the political odds, the vice presidential office were to become vacant, negotiations over a replacement would likely return to the political parties.
The field of potential successors could consequently narrow to established political figures, including leaders who currently head major parties, or younger figures whose names have recently circulated in speculation about the 2029 presidential race.
Ultimately, the fate of the vice presidential seat may depend on more than the legal arguments surrounding a diploma in the Constitutional Court. It could also be shaped by negotiations and political calculations among the country’s political elites.
This raises a further constitutional question: What would happen if circumstances took an unexpected turn and the president died before the Constitutional Court handed down its ruling in the case?
The answer would depend not only on the court’s eventual decision, but also on the constitutional rules governing presidential succession and the political configuration at the time.
The author is chairman of the Indonesian Cyber Media Association (SMSI) and an adviser to the central board of the Indonesian Journalists Association (PWI).
